This proposed project will establish a multi-century network of North African climate records based on tree rings, by extending and enhancing the existing tree-ring dataset geographically and temporally. This network will then be used to study interannual to century scale climate fluctuations in the region, and their links to large-scale patterns of climate variability.
North Africa is a key region for the study of Holocene climate variability. Here, regional climate variation reflects variability in large-scale climate processes, moderated by localized oceanic and continental forcing. Climatic fluctuations have clear links to the North Atlantic Oscillation and also are associated with other variable features of the global climate system (e.g., Arctic Oscillation, Atlantic and European Blocking, and El Niño-Southern Oscillation). Improved knowledge of the long-term variability of North Africa climate in the context of the local-regional-hemispheric climate system will increase understanding of the extent to which fluctuations in the region's climate are governed by the natural variation of these features. Most continuous high-quality instrumental climate records in North Africa start in the late 1800's to early 1900's and, consequently, provide limited information about long-term climate variability on decadal to multi-century time scales. Indirect evidence of climatic variability, such as that stored in time series of tree-ring measurements spanning several centuries, may serve as proxy records of past climatic conditions. Because much of the region is characterized by highly variable semi-arid climate, North Africa is an ideal region in which to find moisture-sensitive tree-ring sites most useful for developing mid-latitude climate reconstructions. It is important to utilize this tree-ring resource before population needs and land use changes destroy many of the oldest and most scientifically valuable forests. This project will:
Data generated by this work will fill a critical gap in multiple regional and global climate databases valued by programs, such as PAGES, CLIVAR, NOAA-OGP, and NASA-EOS. The findings will be especially useful for investigations of interannual to multi-century scale climate variability, ranging from climate system oscillations (Mann et al., 1995; Schlesinger and Ramankutty, 1994) to recurrent regional drought episodes. An international collaborative workshop will be held in Tucson prior to the first field season for exchange of methodologies, discussion of mutual research objectives, and detailed field planning with the North African colleagues. Near the end of the project, a series of seminars and meetings will be conducted in North Africa (one each in Morocco, Tunisia, and Algeria) in order to present results and to garner feedback from potential users of the results. The meetings will emphasize dialogue between scientists, resource managers, and policy makers, focusing on the potential of incorporating results into resource management and planning, appropriate means of disseminating results, and future research-operational collaborative opportunities. These interactions should also aid in the development of in-country capacity. University of Arizona undergraduate students will also be an integral part of the project as these students will be trained in research methods, participate in field work, and be given an opportunity to present results at professional meetings. Final results from the project will be used to enhance existing university courses.
Water is of significant and strategic importance in the precipitation-dependent, primarily agricultural North African-Mediterranean region, where geopolitical strife is endemic. Findings from this research will contribute essential information about hydroclimatic variability to the global change research-policy community, and be of significant value to those seeking solutions to competition over the scarce water resources that are the foundation of social, political, and economic well being of the region.