Margaret E.K. Evans

Oenothera

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education
| employment | fellowships | grants | publications | work in preparation | invited seminars | talks | bayesian hierarchical modeling: teaching & training | reviewer

EDUCATION
University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ. Ph. D. in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, December, 2003. "Life history evolution in evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): Cole’s Paradox revisited". Ph. D. Supervisor: D. Lawrence Venable.

Reed College, Portland, OR. B. A. in Biology, May, 1993.


EMPLOYMENT
Post-Doctoral Fellow. MUSEUM NATIONAL D’HISTOIRE NATURELLE, Paris, France. June 2010-present. Project EVORANGE: How does EVOlution affect extinction and species RANGE dynamics in the context of global change? Implications for ecological forecasting.

Research Scientist. CENTRE NATIONAL DE LA RECHERCHE SCIENTIFIQUE, Laboratoire Ecology and Evolution UMR 7625, Ecole Normale Supérieure, Paris, France. September 2008-November 2009.

Post-Doctoral Fellow. DEPARTMENT OF ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY, YALE UNIVERSITY, New Haven, CT. September 2005-July 2006; August 2007-September 2008.

Post-Doctoral Fellow. ECOLE NORMALE SUPERIEURE and MUSEUM NATIONAL D’HISTOIRE NATURELLE, Paris, France. August 2006-July 2007.

Research Associate. ARCHBOLD BIOLOGICAL STATION, Lake Placid, FL. September 2004-September 2005. Analyzed demographic and weather data to identify climatic drivers of demography.

Visiting Scholar. WESLEYAN UNIVERSITY, Middletown, CT. Jan 2004-August 2004.

Teaching Assistant. UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA, Tucson, AZ. 1998-2000, 2002-2003. Taught laboratory sections of Introductory Biology and Ecology. Assisted with Conservation Biology and Wildland Vegetation Management courses. Lectured on population viability analysis.

Field Assistant. CHRISTENSEN RESEARCH INSTITUTE, Madang, Papua New Guinea. 1997.
Sorted collections of fig wasps and assisted George Weiblen in a pollination experiment. Participated in a collection trip in the Highlands to document the local flora.

Research Assistant. ARCHBOLD BIOLOGICAL STATION, Lake Placid, FL. 1994-1997.
Observed pollinators and conducted controlled hand-pollination experiments to determine the mating systems of seven federally endangered plants endemic to the Lake Wales Ridge of south-central Florida. Supervised by Eric Menges (ABS) and Doria Gordon (The Nature Conservancy).

Biological Science Technician. U. S. FOREST SERVICE, MT. HOOD NATIONAL FOREST, Gresham, OR. 1993-1994. Sub-crew leader surveying for spotted owls.

Intern. OREGON DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE and NATIVE PLANT SOCIETY OF OREGON. Summer, 1992. Collected field data with Tom Kaye in his study of the demography and habitat characteristics of Cimicifuga elata, a rare plant.

Intern. THE NATURE CONSERVANCY, Portland, OR. Summer, 1991. Controlled exotics, monitored rare plants and communities, and helped maintain six preserves in Northeastern Oregon as Field Ecologist Berta Youtie’s intern.


FELLOWSHIPS
Gaylord Donnelley Fellowship. Funded by the Yale Institute for Biospheric Studies, hosted by the Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, and supervised by Michael Donoghue and Stephen Stearns. September 2005-July 2006; August 2007-September 2008.

National Post-Doctoral Program, France. Funded by the Ministry of National Education, Research and Technology, hosted by Ecole Normale Superieure and Museum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Paris, and supervised by Regis Ferriere and Nathalie Machon. August 2006-July 2007.

Integrative Graduate Education and Research Training (IGERT) program. Biology, Mathematics, and Physics Initiative, National Science Foundation. Applied Math Department. University of Arizona. Fall 1999, Fall 2000, Fall 2001, and Spring 2002.

Research Training Grant in the Analysis of Biological Diversification, National Science Foundation. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. University of Arizona. Spring 2001.


GRANTS

EAGER: Demographic models of interior western U. S. tree distributions — climate in the context of competition, disturbance, and natural enemies”. National Science Foundation’s Population and Community Ecology Cluster (Division of Environmental Biology) July, 2016 – June, 2018. ($150,000).

“Forest resilience to climate change: a dendroclimatic assessment of trees with commercial and conservation value”. USDA-AFRI. With PI Dr. Carolyn Copenheaver (Virginia Technical University) and coPIs Dr. Sophan Chhin (Michigan State University), Dr. Glenn Juday (University of Alaska Fairbanks), Dr. Ketia Schumaker (University of West Alabama), and Dr. Saskia van de Gevel (Appalachian State University). January, 2016-December, 2018 ($71,000).

“Forecasting Future Tree Growth Using Tree Rings and Forest Plot Data”. Faculty Exploratory Research Grant, Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona. June, 2015-June, 2016. $9,960.

“Forecasting Future Tree Growth Using Tree Rings and Forest Plot Data”. Faculty Seed Grant, College of Science, University of Arizona. September, 2015-August, 2016. $9,960.

“Comparative analyses of life history evolution in variable environments: Cole’s Paradox revisited”. Doctoral Dissertation Improvement Grant, National Science Foundation. June, 2001-December, 2003. $9,929

Summer research stipend. Integrative Graduate Education and Research Training (IGERT) program, Biology, Mathematics, and Physics Initiative, National Science Foundation. Applied Math Department. University of Arizona. Summer, 2000 and Summer, 2002 (total: $4,334).

Research Training Grant in the Analysis of Biological Diversification, National Science Foundation. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. University of Arizona. Spring, 2000 through Summer, 2002 (total: $10,018).

“Phylogenetic and demographic analyses of life history evolution in the ‘bird-cage’ evening primroses”. American Society of Plant Taxonomists. May, 2000. $800


PUBLICATIONS

Evans, M. E. K., C. Merow, S. Record, S. McMahon, and B. J. Enquist. In press Towards process-based range modeling of many species. Trends in Ecology and Evolution.

Charney, N., Babst, F., Poulter, B., Record, S., Trouet, V., Enquist, B., Evans, M. 2016 Observed forest sensitivity to climate implies large changes in 21st century North American forest growth. Ecology Letters. pdf

Dennhardt, A. J., M. E. K. Evans, A. Dechner, L. E. F. Hunt, and B. A. Maurer. 2016. Macroecology and the theory of island biogeography: abundant utility for applications in restoration ecology. Ch. 16 In Falk, D., M. Palmer, and J. Zedler, eds. Foundations of Restoration Ecology, 2nd Ed. Island Press.

Soulebeau, A., R. Pellens, P. P. Lowry II, X. Aubriot, M. E. K. Evans, and T. Haevermans. 2015. Conservation of phylogenetic diversity in Madagascar’s largest endemic plant family, Sarcolaenaceae. Ch. 18 In Pellens, R. and P. Grandcolas, eds. Biodiversity Conservation and Phylogenetic Systematics: species protection in an extinction crisis. Topics in Biodiversity and Conservation, Vol. 14. Springer, New York.

Evans, M. E. K., X. Aubriot, D. J. Hearn, M. Lanciaux, S. Lavergne, C. Cruaud, P. P. Lowry II, and T. Haevermans. 2014. Insights on the evolution of plant succulence from a remarkable radiation in Madagascar. Systematic Biology 63: 698-711. pdf

Merow, C., J. P. Dahlgren, C. J. E. Metcalf, D. Childs, M. E. K. Evans, E. Jongejans, S. Record, M. Rees, R. Salguero-Gomez, and S. McMahon.  2013.  Advancing population ecology with integral projection models: a practical guide. Methods in Ecology and Evolution doi: 10.1111/2041-210X.12146.

Lavergne, S., M. E. K. Evans, I. Burfield, F. Jiguet, and W. Thuiller. 2013. Are species' responses to global change predicted by past niche evolution? Invited contribution to a special issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B on evolutionary rescue. pdf

Evans, M. E. K. and K. E. Holsinger. 2012. Estimating covariation between vital rates: a simulation study of connected vs. separate generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs). Invited contribution to a special issue titled: “Developments in structured models: construction, analysis, and inference”. Theoretical Population Biology 82: 299-306.

Evans, M. E. K., D. J. Hearn, K. E. Theiss, K. Cranston, M. J. Donoghue, and K. E. Holsinger. 2011. Extreme environments select for reproductive assurance: evidence from evening primroses. New Phytologist 191: 555-563. Selected as recommended reading by Deborah Charlesworth (Faculty of 1000 Biology).

Evans, M. E. K., K. E. Holsinger, and E. S. Menges. 2010. Fire, vital rates, and population viability: a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of the endangered Florida scrub mint. Ecological Monographs 80(4): 627-649. Featured on the home page of ESA’s Plant Population Ecology Section, November, 2011.

Theiss, K. E., K. E. Holsinger, and M. E. K. Evans. 2010. Breeding system variation in ten evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia; Onagraceae). American Journal of Botany 97: 1031-1039.

Evans, M. E. K., S. A. Smith, R. S. Flynn, and M. J. Donoghue. 2009. Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the “bird-cage” evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia). American Naturalist 173: 225-240. American Society of Naturalists’ 2010 Presidential Award.

Gallet, R., T. Tully, M. E. K. Evans. 2009. Ecological conditions affect evolutionary trajectory in a predator-prey system. Evolution 63: 641-651.

Evans, M. E. K., K. E. Holsinger, and E. S. Menges. 2008. Modeling the effect of fire on demography of Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens, an endangered plant endemic to Florida scrub. Population Ecology 50:53-62.

Evans, M. E. K., R. Ferriere, M. J. Kane, and D. L. Venable. 2007. Bet hedging via seed banking in desert evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): demographic evidence from natural populations. American Naturalist 169(2):184-194.

Hille Ris Lambers, J., B. Aukema, J. Diez, M. Evans, A. Latimer. 2006. Effects of global change on inflorescence production: a Bayesian hierarchical analysis. Chapter 4 In Hierarchical Modelling for the Environmental Sciences. J. S. Clark and A. E. Gelfand, editors. Oxford University Press.

Evans, M. E. K., D. J. Hearn, W. J. Hahn, J. Spangle and D. L. Venable. 2005. Climate and life-history evolution in evening primroses (Oenothera, Onagraceae): a phylogenetic comparative analysis. Evolution 59(9):1914-1927.

Evans, M. E. K. and J. J. Dennehy. 2005. Germ banking: bet hedging and variable release from egg and seed dormancy. The Quarterly Review of Biology 80(4):431-451.

Evans, M. E. K., E. S. Menges, and D. R. Gordon. 2004. Mating systems and limits to seed production in two Dicerandra mints endemic to Florida scrub. Biodiversity and Conservation 13(10):1819-1832.

Evans, M. E. K., E. S. Menges, and D. R. Gordon. 2003. Reproductive biology of three sympatric endangered plants endemic to Florida scrub. Biological Conservation 111(2):235-246.

Evans, M. E. K., R. W. Dolan, E. S. Menges, and D. R. Gordon. 2000. Genetic diversity and reproductive biology of Warea carteri (Brassicaceae), a narrowly endemic Florida scrub annual. American Journal of Botany 87(3):372-381.


WORK IN PREPARATION

Vanderwel, M., D. Rozendaal, and M. E. K. Evans. In review. Predicting the abundance of forest types across the eastern U.S. through inverse modelling of tree-level demography. Ecological Applications.

Evans, M. E. K., D. A. Falk, A. Arizpe, T. Swetnam, F. Babst, K. E. Holsinger. In Prep. Fusing tree-ring and forest inventory data to infer influences on tree growth. Target: Ecological Applications.

Pillet, M. E. Joetzjer, N. Barbier, C. Belmin, J. Chave, P. Ciais, A. Dourdain, M. Evans, B. Herault, S. Luyssaert, and B. Poulter. In Prep. Disentangling competitive vs. climatic effects on tropical forest mortality. Target : Ecology Letters.

Boucher, F.C., Renaud, J., Schiffers, K., Davies, T.J., Arroyo, M.K., Aubriot, X., Evans, M.E.K., Guerrero, P., Haevermans, T., Midgley, G., Mouillot, D., Ronce, O., Roquet, C., Tonnabel, J. & W. Thuiller, S. Lavergne. In review Climatic niche shifts and consequences on species diversification in 127 clades of plants and vertebrates. Global Ecology and Biogeography.

Hearn, D. J., Evans, M. E. K., B. Wolf, M. McGinty, J. Wen. In prep. Dispersal is associated with morphological innovation, but not increased diversification, in Cyphostemma (Vitaceae). Target: Systematic Biology.

 

INVITED SEMINARS

Hierarchical models for population and range modeling
• Department of Biology, Rice University, at the invitation of Dr. Tom Miller (December 1, 2014).

Dynamical modeling of species’ responses to global change: integrating plant distributions, demography, and traits in a Bayesian informatics framework
• Quantitative Biology Colloquium, Program in Applied Mathematics, University of Arizona (April 30, 2013).

The macroevolution of species’ niches and species’ responses to global change
• Evolutionary Rescue Conference (http://www.evorescu.univ-montp2.fr/). Institut des Sciences de L’Evolution, Universite of Montpellier 2. Co-presented with Sebastien Lavergne. (June 7, 2011).

Analyses of plant diversity: from Bayesian PVA to comparative evolutionary ecology
• Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, at the invitation of Dr. Brian Enquist (February 21, 2011).

Evolution of the “bird-cage” evening primroses: climate, life history, and breeding system
• Niche Evolution Conference, Institute of Systematic Botany, University of Zurich, at the invitation of Dr. Peter Linder (July 4, 2009).
• Institut des Sciences de L’Evolution, Universite of Montpellier 2, at the invitation of Dr. Isabelle Olivieri (January 12, 2009).
• Departement de Mathematiques, Universite of Mediterranee, France, at the invitation of Dr. Etienne Pardoux (October 29, 2008).

Climate, niche evolution, and diversification of the “bird-cage” evening primroses (Oenothera, sections Anogra and Kleinia).
• Alpine Summer School, “Interaction and Coevolution of Climate and Biosphere”, Valsavarenche, Valle d’Aosta, Italy, at the invitation of Dr. Antonello Provenzale (June 4, 2008).

Bayesian population viability analysis of Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens, an endangered plant of Florida Scrub.
• Laboratory of Ecology and Evolution (ENS-Paris) and Institute of Complex Systems (ISC-PIF), Paris, France (October 28, 2008)
• Archbold Biological Station, Lake Placid, Florida, at the invitation of Dr. Eric Menges (December 6, 2007).
• Yale Institute for Biospheric Studies, Yale University (September 28, 2007).

Species distribution models: a tool for studying the ecology, evolution and conservation of biodiversity.
• Alpine Summer School, “Interaction and Coevolution of Climate and Biosphere”, Valsavarenche, Valle d’Aosta, Italy, at the invitation of Dr. Antonello Provenzale (June 3, 2008).
• Museum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France, at the invitation of Dr. Pierre-Henri Gouyon (March 15, 2007).

Climatic explanations for the evolution of annuality: a phylogenetic comparative analysis
• Institut des Sciences de L’Evolution, Universite of Montpellier 2, at the invitation of Dr. Isabelle Olivieri (June 9, 2005).
• Department of Biology, University of Washington, at the invitation of Dr. Richard Olmstead (May 17, 2005).

Life history evolution in evening primroses: Cole’s Paradox revisited.
• Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, at the invitation of Dr. Stephen Stearns (Feb 16, 2004), and at the invitation of the department (Oct 26, 2005).
• Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut Storrs, at the invitation
of Dr. Kent Holsinger (February 19, 2004).
• Program in Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, University of Massachusetts Amherst (Feb 10, 2004).


CONTRIBUTED SEMINARS

Evans, M., Holsinger, K., Arizpe, A., Swetnam, T., Babst, F. and Falk, D. 2016. Combining tree-ring and forest plot data to infer climatic niche: a hierarchical Bayesian approach. Third American Dendrochronology Conference. Invited contribution to the symposium “Tree rings and dynamic vegetation models: Interdisciplinary research to improve forecasts of past and future forest dynamics”.

Charney N, Babst F., Poulter B, Record, S., Trouet V, Frank, D., Enquist B, Evans M. 2015. A tree-ring perspective on the impact of climate change on North American tree growth. International Congress for Conservation Biology.

Charney N, Babst F., Trouet V, Enquist B, Poulter B, Evans M. 2015. Altered forest growth rates projected for North America with regionally variable climate response regimes. 5th North American Carbon Program Principal Investigators Meeting.

Evans, M. E. K. Cory Merow, Noah Charney, Sydne Record, Jim Menlove, Andy Gray, Jamie Cundiff, Sean McMahon, Brian Enquist. 2014. Demography-based models of the geographic ranges of nine dominant tree species in western North America: does a process-based approach improve models of distributions? Ecological Society of America’s Annual Meeting.

Evans, M. E. K. and K. E. Holsinger. 2012. Estimating vital rates using generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs): A simulation study of connected vs. separate GLMMs Ecological Society of America’s Annual Meeting.

Lavergne, S., M. E. K. Evans, I. J. Burfield, F. Jiguet, and W. Thuiller. 2012. Do past rates of niche evolution explain current population trends in European birds? Ecological Society of Germany, Austria, and Switzerland’s Specialist Group for Macroecology, Annual Meeting.

Carlson, S. E., M. E. K. Evans, and M. J. Donoghue. 2010. The influence of climate on dispersal and life history evolution in Lomelosia (Dipsacaceae). Botanical Society of America’s Annual Meeting.

Evans, M. E. K., K. E. Holsinger, and E. S. Menges. 2009. Environmental drivers, vital rates, and population dynamics: a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of population viability and fire management of the rare plant Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens (Lamiaceae). Ecological Society of America’s Annual Meeting.

Evans, M. E. K., K. E. Holsinger, and E. S. Menges. 2007. A hierarchical Bayesian model of time-since-fire effects on the demography of the Florida scrub endemic, Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens (Lamiaceae). Ecological Society of America’s Annual Meeting.

Smith, S. A., M. E. K. Evans, R. Flynn, and M. J. Donoghue. 2007. Rates of climatic niche evolution. Botanical Society of America’s Annual Meeting.

Theiss, K. E., M. E. K. Evans, and K. E. Holsinger. 2007. The relationship between breeding system and life history in Oenothera Sections Anogra and Kleinia (Onagraceae). Botanical Society of America’s Annual Meeting.

Evans, M. E. K., S. A. Smith, and M. J. Donoghue. 2006. Rates of evolution of climate parameters in the “bird-cage” evening primroses (Sections Anogra and Kleinia, Oenothera, Onagraceae). Society for the Study of Evolution’s Annual Meeting.

Evans, M. E. K. 2004. Climatic explanations for the evolution of the annual habit: a phylogenetic analysis. Society for the Study of Evolution’s Annual Meeting.

Evans, M. E. K. 2004. Bet hedging as a seed-banking annual vs. iteroparous perennial: evidence from two desert evening primroses. Ecological Society of America’s Annual Meeting.

Evans, M. E. K., W. J. Hahn, D. J. Hearn, J. S. Spangle, D. L. Venable. 2003. Testing life history theory in a phylogenetic context: the association of climate and habit in the bird-cage evening primroses (Section Anogra, Oenothera, Onagraceae). Society for the Study of Evolution’s Annual Meeting.

Evans, M. E. K., D. L. Venable, G. R. McPherson. 2002, 2001. Life history evolution in evening primroses: evidence from experimental and natural populations. Ecological Society of America’s Annual Meeting (2002); Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona (2001).

Evans, M. E. K., D. R. Gordon, E. S. Menges. 1997. Effective population sizes in seven federally endangered plants endemic to Florida scrub. Ecological Society of America’s Annual Meeting.

Evans, M. E. K., D. R. Gordon, and E. S. Menges. 1996. Reproductive biology and conservation of three federally endangered plants endemic to ancient Florida scrub. Florida Native Plant Society’s Annual Meeting; Ecological Society of America’s Annual Meeting; Current Research Symposium, Archbold Biological Station, Lake Placid, FL.

Evans, M. E. K., D. R. Gordon, E. S. Menges. 1995. Breeding system of Warea carteri: implications for conservation of a narrowly endemic Florida scrub annual. Florida Ecological and Evolutionary Symposium; Current Research Symposium, Archbold Biological Station; Florida Native Plant Society’s Annual Meeting; Ecological Society of America’s Annual Meeting.


BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODELING: TRAINING & TEACHING

Lecture: Bayesian Population Viability Analysis of Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens. “Bayesian hierarchical modeling” course. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs. November 30, 2007.

Assistant, Workshop, “A brief introduction to Bayesian and hierarchical Bayesian modeling in ecology”. Ecological Society of America Annual Meeting, San Jose, CA. August 5, 2007.

Lecture: Bayesian Population Viability Analysis. “Ecology in English” course. Master’s Program in Ecology, Biodiversity and Evolution, University of Paris 11, Orsay, France. December 18, 2006.

Led a semester-long weekly seminar on “The Ecological Detective” (Hilborn, R. and M. Mangel, 1997, Princeton Monographs in Population Biology). I made >150 slides to present Chapters 1-10 of this book. Museum National d’Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France. Fall, 2006.

Summer Institute at DUKE UNIVERSITY’S CENTER ON GLOBAL CHANGE. June 6-19, 2004. Uncertainty and Variability in Ecological Inference, Forecasting and Decision Making, An Introduction to Modern Statistical Computation. Admission (as a student) to this Institute was competitive; all expenses were paid. The workshop focused on hierarchical Bayesian modeling of ecological datasets.


REVIEWER
American Journal of Botany, Conservation Biology, Conservation Genetics, Ecology, Global Ecology and Biogeography, Oikos, The American Naturalist, Theoretical Population Biology.

 

mekevans@email.arizona.edu

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