Date: Fri, 13 Dec 2002 09:14:34 -0700 From: "T. W. Swetnam" To: "Ellis Q. Margolis" , Christopher Baisan , "Craig D. Allen" , AllenFamily926@aol.com Subject: JFSP proposal? Craig, Ellis, Chris, I may be nuts to think that maybe we can pull this off -- maybe we can't -- but I think we should consider putting in a proposal to JFSP on this round. Its due January 6. The idea would be to propose a project to expand what Ellis has started with his ms project. After reading the RFP, and Task 1 (listed below this message) I think a focus on understanding the climatic drivers of stand replacing fires in the SW could be a winner. It seems to me that they are emphasizing "catastrophic fire", and changes in fire severity and intensity. Also climate drivers and predictability. This is good I think. Maybe we could build a proposal around these objectives and goals, or some set of them: 1) reconstruct regional histories of crown fire events (we would need at least a couple of dozen more stands and mountain ranges in the SW for this -- where we identify dates of big crown fire events -- mainly in high elevations 2) compile regional crown fire event chronologies and case studies from modern period (20th-21st centuries) 2) compare these crown fire event chronologies with the regional surface fire histories from lower elevation stands to determine relations/associations 3) compare these event chronologies with independent records of drought, ENSO, PDO, etc. to determine temporal associations (e.g., current year and precursor patterns) 4) carry out spatial assessments of differences in crown fire and surface histories, and climate associations, across the SW 5) carry out synoptic scale assessment of SW fire history in relation to very broad scale climate patterns in western North America (e.g., use 500 mb pressure data fields to identify consistent scenarios of the positions of highs/lows, and the jet stream, and other flow patterns, etc. that predict regional crown fire years) 6) arrive at a set of predictor or forecast models that potentially incorporate multi-year drought, ENSO, PDO and synoptic-scale pressure anomalies to identify probabilities of experiencing regional crown fire events, and possibly higher resolution forecasts of sub-regional probabilities of such events This work would involve a big field collection effort for new crown fire histories (using methodologies worked out by Ellis). It will also require some serious climatology work, and statistical modeling. To build in a good, clear link to management it would probably need to be pretty specific on how the final model(s) might be built and applied and tech-transferred, etc (maybe CLIMAS can help with this). I could see some part of this forming the basis of Ellis' dissertation -- if he wanted to go that way. It could also, or alternatively, involve another student or a post-doc to assist in the new field collections, and/or to carry out the synoptic climatology and modeling part. The latter would very much benefit from someone with some climatological background. So -- this all mostly a mental dump at this point -- and may be totally unrealistic about my time to write this proposal or its chances of funding. For now, it would be useful to get your response to this idea. Also, if we are going to do something like this, we would need to line up an agency collaborator, as required by JFSP. Maybe your involvement here Craig would be sufficient??? But maybe some link with a management unit needed.... not sure who that would be. All for now, Tom http://www.nifc.gov/joint_fire_sci/2003-1_AFP.htm Task 1: Interactions between climate, fire regimes, and fire management Proposals are sought that develop methods, models, or experimental/empirical approaches to characterize past, present and future fuel and fire regimes, fire hazard potential, and vegetation conditions related to fire under changing climate and altered climate variability. Of interest are observations and models that relate changes in fire severity or intensity, burned area(s), or vegetation complexes affected. This includes a better understanding and interpretation of the role fire plays in carbon storage and release from landscape to continental scales. Also of interest is the characterization of current and future contribution to aerosol formation and the influence on regional climatology. Lastly, investigators may address applications for tactical and strategic fire preparedness, seasonal to long-range fire management planning, or development of guidelines for post-fire rehabilitation and restoration. Potential climate change implies vastly changed fire risk patterns, which may require new approaches to vegetation management. Research is needed to address complex issues caused by these processes. For present climate, understanding of the relation of fire regimes, drought and wet cycles and fuels has improved forecasting capabilities, but the skill of these forecasts is still generally poor. Furthermore, existing General Circulation Models (GCMs) project increased drought potential in some regions, and altered dry-wet cycles that would lead to shifts in potential vegetation. Since the 1980’s, many areas of the country have experienced dramatic changes in weather patterns, which may have both cyclical and synoptic (long-term) components. These patterns are likely one of the key factors in changing fire behavior and size. For a changing and variable climate, research is needed to project fuel dynamics and fire regimes, and to link potential responses in terrestrial vegetation and fire characteristics to regional models and GCM outputs. This includes interannual, decadal or longer-term fluctuations where wet-dry cycles may allow fuels build-up followed by dry periods and high fire risk, and partitioning of climate-induced changes from those driven by land use or land cover change and changing management practices. These should then permit linkage to hazard evaluation. Where can we anticipate the higher likelihood of catastrophic wildfire? How might vegetation shifts under a drying and warming regime increase fire frequency and intensity? Can we help resource and fire managers, as well as give policy makers and the public a better understanding of changed future resource demands and new allocation algorithms for fire suppression resources for future fire seasons? Closely related are the needs for improved understanding of vegetation management for the new or altered climate regimes. How do we approach thinning, prescribed burning, and fuels management given the significant uncertainties in regional to local climate change predictions? Can we develop risk-based management scenarios for vegetation management needs where large confidence intervals are the norm? Future vegetation management will also need to consider impacts on carbon sequestration in forested lands and rangelands. Understanding the relationships between carbon storage and release, fire risk, fire severity, fuel management treatments, and other human and natural factors leading to altered fire regimes will help develop strategies for achieving optimum sequestration with low risk of catastrophic fire. This has implications for the resource manager at scales from the stand level to large regional areas. Anticipated products may be of the form of improved fuel dynamics models that reflect periodic fluctuations such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and other cycles, maps that are the product of dynamic vegetation models and describe vegetation shifts, changes in structure, density and composition of forested ecosystems, and fuel hazard assessments under changed future climate.